[QUOTE=aussiejackoinsaudi;2252722]
Quote:
Originally Posted by lloydyp
Sadly Aussie you multiply .5 x .5 x .5 which gives us a 12.5% chance on your 50% chance per game!! Good job we play on grass and not on a calculator.[/QUOTE
Do we have a 50% chance of winning each game? Yes or no? If we win the first game we have exactly the same chance of winning the second game and then the third game. Let me believe as it makes sense to me.
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This assertation is like saying you toss a coin three times and the odds on getting three heads are 50%. That is, of course, complete nonsense.
If the odds of winning each match were 50%, winning all three would be 12.5%. That is, of course, complete nonsense too. The odds on Wrexham winning at Salford are significantly less than 50%.
Let us be kind and says the odds on beating Eastleigh are 60%, Salford 30% and Wembley 50%. This gives a 9% chance of Wrexham being a football league team next season.
This is why Denise Coates drives around Hanley in a Bentley. It is also why the gulf in finishing 4th and not 3rd is so huge statistically. The probability difference in winning one home game and Wembley or one home, one away and Wembley is massive and reflected in the current betting odds.