[QUOTE=Acton Lakers;2252729]
Quote:
Originally Posted by aussiejackoinsaudi
This assertation is like saying you toss a coin three times and the odds on getting three heads are 50%. That is, of course, complete nonsense.
If the odds of winning each match were 50%, winning all three would be 12.5%. That is, of course, complete nonsense too. The odds on Wrexham winning at Salford are significantly less than 50%.
Let us be kind and says the odds on beating Eastleigh are 60%, Salford 30% and Wembley 50%. This gives a 9% chance of Wrexham being a football league team next season.
This is why Denise Coates drives around Hanley in a Bentley. It is also why the gulf in finishing 4th and not 3rd is so huge statistically. The probability difference in winning one home game and Wembley or one home, one away and Wembley is massive and reflected in the current betting odds.
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As all things aren't equal, your figures are probably more accurate, if a little generous. I would say about a 5-10% probability of success. But past performances, thankfully, don't guarantee future success or lack of it. So, all we can say is we are somehow still in the hunt!
