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Old 23rd July 2018, 11.26:18   #1-0 (permalink)
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Default The power of Stats

This might be one for StattoWrexham !

I once read that George Soros made all his billions with statistical predictions.

There are 24 teams in the National League.

1 team gets promoted as champions by finishing 1/24

1 team gets promoted by winning play offs out of 6 teams as 2 >7 / 24 promotion places.

4 teams get relegated

So what are the statistical % chances of Wrexham AFC ...

a) going up as champions ?

b) going up via the play offs ?

c) staying in the National League for a 13th year ?

c) getting relegated ?

Once we know that we can easily convince George Soros to invest a few spare million in our club.
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Old 23rd July 2018, 11.32:32   #2-0 (permalink)
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Default Re: The power of Stats

There is zero chance of promotion. Soros is a vile creature.
Old 23rd July 2018, 11.41:42   #3-0 (permalink)
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Default Re: The power of Stats

Quote:
Originally Posted by el poncho View Post
This might be one for StattoWrexham !


a) going up as champions ?

b) going up via the play offs ?

c) staying in the National League for a 13th year ?

c) getting relegated ?

Once we know that we can easily convince George Soros to invest a few spare million in our club.
I think statistically it is very simple:

a)1:24
b)1:24
c)18:24 or 3:4
d)4:24 or 1:8
Old 23rd July 2018, 11.43:15   #4-0 (permalink)
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Default Re: The power of Stats

Statto hasn't been on here for months.
Old 23rd July 2018, 13.02:23   #5-0 (permalink)
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Default Re: The power of Stats

Quote:
Originally Posted by el poncho View Post
This might be one for StattoWrexham !

I once read that George Soros made all his billions with statistical predictions.

There are 24 teams in the National League.

1 team gets promoted as champions by finishing 1/24

1 team gets promoted by winning play offs out of 6 teams as 2 >7 / 24 promotion places.

4 teams get relegated

So what are the statistical % chances of Wrexham AFC ...

a) going up as champions ?

b) going up via the play offs ?

c) staying in the National League for a 13th year ?

c) getting relegated ?

Once we know that we can easily convince George Soros to invest a few spare million in our club.
0/24 automatic
0/24 playoff

As for the other two predictions who knows. Depends on our how our paper thin squad fares with injuries, how our transfer gambles pay off and if there are four teams in the league worse than us.

As for George Soros I wouldn't want that piece of shit anywhere near this club.
Old 23rd July 2018, 13.44:22   #6-0 (permalink)
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Default Re: The power of Stats

Yes GS is an extreme example of what is wrong with society on so many levels.

It was intended to be ironic. Apologies if it was misrepresented.

We all know what happens when overt capitalists try to get close to Wxmfc.

I have just got in touch with Statto to check if he's okay. Hope so.
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Old 23rd July 2018, 13.50:49   #7-0 (permalink)
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Default Re: The power of Stats

Statistically speaking you would have to base any forecast on available data. We have never got automatic promotion from this league so statistically wemhave zero likelihood. The same applies to promotion via the playoffs and also relegation. During our time here, we have averaged 9th position and finished in a (unsuccessful) playoff spot three times. Based purely on that, we have a 33% chance of making the playoffs, no chance of winning the playoffs or automatic promotion or relegation.

Fortunately, statistical/probability forecasting means nothing. What was the statistical likelihood of Lewis Hamilton winning the German Grand Prix with 26 laps to go? Zero.
Old 23rd July 2018, 19.11:15   #8-0 (permalink)
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Default Re: The power of Stats

Quote:
Originally Posted by kevjones1964 View Post
I think statistically it is very simple:

a)1:24
b)1:24
c)18:24 or 3:4
d)4:24 or 1:8
I think Option B should be 1:23, as one team will be promoted.
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Old 23rd July 2018, 19.12:45   #9-0 (permalink)
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Default Re: The power of Stats

Quote:
Originally Posted by draigwrecsam View Post
Statistically speaking you would have to base any forecast on available data. We have never got automatic promotion from this league so statistically wemhave zero likelihood. The same applies to promotion via the playoffs and also relegation. During our time here, we have averaged 9th position and finished in a (unsuccessful) playoff spot three times. Based purely on that, we have a 33% chance of making the playoffs, no chance of winning the playoffs or automatic promotion or relegation.

Fortunately, statistical/probability forecasting means nothing. What was the statistical likelihood of Lewis Hamilton winning the German Grand Prix with 26 laps to go? Zero.
Past performance does not predict future chance.
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UP THE TOWN! Those are my principles, and if you don't like them.... well, I have others. GROUCHO MARX
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