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Old 30th April 2019, 10.01:54   #11-0 (permalink)
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Default Re: Time to believe

50% chance of a 100% record in fact
Old 30th April 2019, 10.04:55   #12-0 (permalink)
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Default Re: Time to believe

[QUOTE=aussiejackoinsaudi;2252722]
Quote:
Originally Posted by lloydyp View Post
Sadly Aussie you multiply .5 x .5 x .5 which gives us a 12.5% chance on your 50% chance per game!! Good job we play on grass and not on a calculator.[/QUOTE

Do we have a 50% chance of winning each game? Yes or no? If we win the first game we have exactly the same chance of winning the second game and then the third game. Let me believe as it makes sense to me.
This assertation is like saying you toss a coin three times and the odds on getting three heads are 50%. That is, of course, complete nonsense.

If the odds of winning each match were 50%, winning all three would be 12.5%. That is, of course, complete nonsense too. The odds on Wrexham winning at Salford are significantly less than 50%.

Let us be kind and says the odds on beating Eastleigh are 60%, Salford 30% and Wembley 50%. This gives a 9% chance of Wrexham being a football league team next season.

This is why Denise Coates drives around Hanley in a Bentley. It is also why the gulf in finishing 4th and not 3rd is so huge statistically. The probability difference in winning one home game and Wembley or one home, one away and Wembley is massive and reflected in the current betting odds.
Old 30th April 2019, 10.11:40   #13-0 (permalink)
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Default Re: Time to believe

Quote:
Originally Posted by GoJohnnyGoGoGoGo View Post
50% chance of a 100% record in fact
And given we can draw and even lose some and still win the league I've worked out a 104% chance of the title next year if we don't go up

A quick look a the bookies odds suggests they think we've got about a 70% chance of getting through against Eastleigh.

Last edited by tokyored; 30th April 2019 at 10.15:41..
Old 30th April 2019, 11.22:22   #14-0 (permalink)
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Default Re: Time to believe

Quote:
Originally Posted by lloydyp View Post
Sadly Aussie you multiply .5 x .5 x .5 which gives us a 12.5% chance on your 50% chance per game!! Good job we play on grass and not on a calculator.
As of today, I agree with your sums, LP.

If, however, we do play Salford on Sunday, on Saturday we will have a 25% chance of being promoted - all things being equal.

Should we beat Salford, next Friday we would potentially have a 50% chance of being promoted - probably slightly less if we play AFC Fylde.

If we somehow win at Wembley, there is a 100% certainty that some fans would still blame SH, the Board and Rutherford for not winning the league and going up automatically. That is as sure as eggs!
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Old 30th April 2019, 11.27:10   #15-0 (permalink)
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Default Re: Time to believe

[QUOTE=Acton Lakers;2252729]
Quote:
Originally Posted by aussiejackoinsaudi View Post

This assertation is like saying you toss a coin three times and the odds on getting three heads are 50%. That is, of course, complete nonsense.

If the odds of winning each match were 50%, winning all three would be 12.5%. That is, of course, complete nonsense too. The odds on Wrexham winning at Salford are significantly less than 50%.

Let us be kind and says the odds on beating Eastleigh are 60%, Salford 30% and Wembley 50%. This gives a 9% chance of Wrexham being a football league team next season.

This is why Denise Coates drives around Hanley in a Bentley. It is also why the gulf in finishing 4th and not 3rd is so huge statistically. The probability difference in winning one home game and Wembley or one home, one away and Wembley is massive and reflected in the current betting odds.
As all things aren't equal, your figures are probably more accurate, if a little generous. I would say about a 5-10% probability of success. But past performances, thankfully, don't guarantee future success or lack of it. So, all we can say is we are somehow still in the hunt!
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Old 30th April 2019, 11.31:09   #16-0 (permalink)
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Default Re: Time to believe

Quote:
Originally Posted by Prodigal Dragon View Post
If we somehow win at Wembley, there is a 100% certainty that some fans would still blame SH, the Board and Rutherford for not winning the league and going up automatically. That is as sure as eggs!
Come on PD!!
Blame for Jan will be deservedly placed, no one blames board members for losing games they get blamed for decision making.
Old 30th April 2019, 11.36:47   #17-0 (permalink)
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Default Re: Time to believe

Great thread, however everyone knows our chances of promotion are not 50% or even 12.5% but 0%
Old 30th April 2019, 12.18:47   #18-0 (permalink)
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Default Re: Time to believe

Quote:
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Come on PD!!
Blame for Jan will be deservedly placed, no one blames board members for losing games they get blamed for decision making.
Ignorance is bliss pagl.
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Old 30th April 2019, 12.20:09   #19-0 (permalink)
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Default Re: Time to believe

Quote:
Originally Posted by krux View Post
Great thread, however everyone knows our chances of promotion are not 50% or even 12.5% but 0%
That's your odds based on your team selection because you insist on putting passengers &/or sheep dogs in the team
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Old 30th April 2019, 13.31:03   #20-0 (permalink)
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Default Re: Time to believe

Our chances of gaining promotion are around 10%. After watching about 50 games in this division this season, luck might just play a part ( we will take some of that). For those who feel that we have a good or equal chance, I admire your positivity. Your heart is clearly ruling your head. That said, I will try to be at every game.
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