2020/21 Like for Like Stats

[draigwrecsam]

It could have been a lot worse! Still holding on to 5th and 6th on PPG.

On paper, pessimists will say that Notts County, Chesterfield and Maidenhead could push us out of the playoff spots by winning their games in hand.

To me, the realistic picture is the PPG table with Dover results expunged and, on that basis we will creep into the playoffs.

This will be affected by teams playing each other in what is known as 6-pointers - we have two to come against Notts County. I hope on Sunday to give some insights into the impact on the top ten teams.

[draigwrecsam]

Maybe, just maybe? If we can get a result on Good Friday...

I've adjusted the stats to account for the demise of Dover.

[Hamilton Pathetic]

Originally Posted by draigwrecsam

Maybe, just maybe? If we can get a result on Good Friday...

I've adjusted the stats to account for the demise of Dover.

I'm sure you think you have adjusted the stats for the expulsion of Dover, but I am not certain that you have? For a true Like for Like shouldn't Dover's matches be excluded from the 19/20 stats as well?

While we are here, I notice that the Same Number of Games column has not taken into account the Dover removal or some cancelled games, skewing the comparison. I am sure you don't need me to tell you that we haven't played 33 games this season as showing in the summary, so I suppose we are not 1 point off the magic number for the playoffs.

But apart from that, well done on making the adjustment.


An interesting stat, one you may wish to check for correctness, is that before the Takeover we had collected 29 points from 20 games, since the T/O (Woking) we have gained 18 points from 9 games, coincidence?

[draigwrecsam]

Originally Posted by Hamilton Pathetic

I'm sure you think you have adjusted the stats for the expulsion of Dover, but I am not certain that you have? For a true Like for Like shouldn't Dover's matches be excluded from the 19/20 stats as well?

While we are here, I notice that the Same Number of Games column has not taken into account the Dover removal or some cancelled games, skewing the comparison. I am sure you don't need me to tell you that we haven't played 33 games this season as showing in the summary, so I suppose we are not 1 point off the magic number for the playoffs.

But apart from that, well done on making the adjustment.


An interesting stat, one you may wish to check for correctness, is that before the Takeover we had collected 29 points from 20 games, since the T/O (Woking) we have gained 18 points from 9 games, coincidence?

OK, the easy one first! The summary total games includes cancelled games. It's my way of balancing the 9 cancelled games last year with the 4 cancelled games this year is calculated on the games played excluding the 4 Dover and Macclesfield games and so it's correct. A requirement for a 70 point total (the arbitrary figure that looks like being the minimum for a playoff spot) is 1.67 points per game. 29 games x 1.67 gives 48.4 so we are 1 point below target.
I could change it to take into accounted the weighted PPG - maybe, just for you my friend I will!

As to seeing last season in the comparisons, I pondered long on this. Certainly the 'same opponents' column should include them. But where do I put the 'same game number'? Can't just wipe it out! This job is not easy!

29 points after 20 games before and 18 in 9 games since is correct!

[International]

Originally Posted by draigwrecsam

29 points after 20 games before and 18 in 9 games since is correct!

That's a coincidence and a half.

[Hamilton Pathetic]

Originally Posted by draigwrecsam

OK, the easy one first! The summary total games includes cancelled games. It's my way of balancing the 9 cancelled games last year with the 4 cancelled games this year is calculated on the games played excluding the 4 Dover and Macclesfield games and so it's correct. A requirement for a 70 point total (the arbitrary figure that looks like being the minimum for a playoff spot) is 1.67 points per game. 29 games x 1.67 gives 48.4 so we are 1 point below target.
I could change it to take into accounted the weighted PPG - maybe, just for you my friend I will!

As to seeing last season in the comparisons, I pondered long on this. Certainly the 'same opponents' column should include them. But where do I put the 'same game number'? Can't just wipe it out! This job is not easy!

29 points after 20 games before and 18 in 9 games since is correct!

It all boils down to a case of methodology or philosophy, I prefer a straight number of games played against games played last year even if the comparison peters out shortly but I can see where you're coming from even if you are wrong. However can you confirm that the 70 point magic number is a best guess based on the new improved 42 game season rather than the old obsolete 46 game season.

P.S. International, it must be a comfort to draigwrecsam to know that someone other than me looks at his thread, it's his life's work you know.

[draigwrecsam]

Yes, the 70 points is based on what's needed to beat the 8th placed team in PPG.

[WxmWynno]

I must say, it’s a great effort to pull all this data together and it’s appreciated.
Posted via mobile theme

[draigwrecsam]

Originally Posted by WxmWynno

I must say, it’s a great effort to pull all this data together and it’s appreciated.
Posted via mobile theme

Thank you!